BxB Invests
Picture this: roughly 20% of the world’s oil and 18% of its natural gas passes through a strait that is, at its narrowest, just 33 kilometres wide — and this week, that strait effectively closed. The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now in its 26th day, has reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by approximately 70%, stranded an estimated 2,000 vessels, and sent Brent crude briefly within striking distance of $120 per barrel before a partial de-escalation pulled it back to the $101 range. Meanwhile, Bitcoin caught a 5% relief bid, gold surrendered its safe-haven premium and slid to $4,560/oz, and the Bank of Canada sat on its hands — again — at 2.25%.
For Canadian investors, this is not a spectator sport. Canada now stands as the world’s most geopolitically stable major oil exporter, with Trans Mountain running near full capacity and global buyers desperate to diversify away from Middle Eastern supply. That is a structural tailwind for the energy patch that no Bank of Canada rate decision can manufacture. At the same time, stagflation — the uncomfortable marriage of slowing growth and rising energy-driven inflation — is creeping back into the macro conversation, which means the BoC’s room to cut rates and stimulate the economy is shrinking by the day.
The smart money is not panicking. It is repositioning. Here is what moved this week and why it matters for your portfolio.
— The BxB Invests Editorial Team
The Numbers That Matter This Week
Oil Tops $100 as US-Israel Strikes Shut the Strait of Hormuz — Canada’s Moment Has Arrived
The single most consequential event in global energy markets in a decade unfolded on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury — coordinated airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership. The fallout has been swift and severe: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which approximately 20–30% of global seaborne oil and gas flows — collapsed by roughly 70%, leaving more than 2,000 vessels anchored offshore. Brent crude futures briefly touched $113.71 on March 19 before partial de-escalation signals pulled the price back to $101.44 by midweek. WTI briefly pierced $109. To put that in perspective: oil has not sustained levels above $100 since 2022.
For Canadian energy investors, this is an inflection point. Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline is running near full capacity as Asian buyers scramble to secure non-Middle Eastern barrels. Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) surged 3.0% on Tuesday, while Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) added 1.8% and Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) gained 2.2%. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ), Enbridge (TSX:ENB), Whitecap Resources (TSX:WCP), and Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) have each been highlighted by analysts as direct beneficiaries of elevated prices and supply-diversification demand. The International Energy Agency — which includes Canada as a member — announced the largest coordinated oil stock release in its history, with Canada contributing 23.6 million barrels.
Watch for Q1 earnings from Suncor and Cenovus in late April — with Brent averaging well above $100 for much of the quarter, free-cash-flow generation for Canadian integrated producers will be exceptional. The risk to monitor: a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict could trigger a 10–15% correction in crude within days. Diversified plays like Enbridge, with pipeline fee-based revenues, offer lower volatility exposure to the upcycle.
The $700 Billion AI Infrastructure Bet — And the Canadian Stocks Cashing In
The numbers are almost too large to process: the world’s top five hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple — have committed a combined US$700 billion in AI infrastructure capital expenditure for 2026 alone, double the amount deployed in 2025. That tidal wave of spending has to land somewhere, and a growing portion of it is finding its way to Canadian manufacturers, software providers, and cloud enablers. The broader tech sector faced a turbulent week amid geopolitical volatility, with Shopify (TSX:SHOP) declining 3.8% and Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) shedding 3.8% — but the AI-adjacent names held up considerably better.
Celestica (TSX:CLS) continues to be the standout Canadian beneficiary of the AI hardware boom. The Toronto-based electronics manufacturer — which produces Ethernet switches, storage solutions, and AI networking chips through its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment — has seen its stock surge dramatically over the past two years and is guiding for CCS revenue growth of approximately 50% in 2026. OpenText (TSX:OTEX), trading near $39.52 and yielding 3.8%, offers a more defensive AI angle through enterprise data management. Kinaxis (TSX:KXS), reporting record quarterly revenue of $134.6 million (up 11% year-over-year) with annual recurring revenue of $407 million, is gaining traction as supply-chain AI software becomes indispensable amid global trade disruptions.
The investing takeaway is nuanced: the AI capex super-cycle is real, but not every tech stock is equally exposed. Shopify’s near-term weakness creates a potential entry point for long-horizon investors, while Celestica and Kinaxis offer more direct AI infrastructure exposure with less consumer-demand sensitivity. Watch for Celestica’s next earnings release and any guidance revision given the current macro volatility.
Bitcoin Claws Back to $71K as Geopolitical Fear Trade Fades — But the 43% Drawdown Tells a Bigger Story
Bitcoin traded at $71,299 as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 25, 2026 — up approximately $256 from the prior session and recovering roughly 5% from Monday’s dip below $68,000. The catalyst was the same geopolitical de-escalation signal that lifted energy stocks: reports of a potential pause in military escalation between the US and Iran eased the risk-off sentiment that had been hammering digital assets since late February. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands near US$1.33 trillion, maintaining its dominant position ahead of Ethereum’s approximately US$233 billion. The psychologically critical $70,000 level has now held for three consecutive sessions, which technical analysts read as a consolidation signal rather than a ceiling.
The institutional context matters here. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained steady throughout the conflict-driven volatility, providing a structural floor that did not exist during previous bear cycles. Canadian investors have access to several Bitcoin spot ETFs listed on the TSX, including Purpose Bitcoin ETF (TSX:BTCC) and Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF (TSX:FBTC), which have absorbed redemption pressure without the kind of contagion seen in 2022. However, Bitcoin remains approximately 43% below its all-time high of US$126,080, which puts the current recovery in clear perspective — this is a relief rally in a longer downtrend, not a new bull market breakout.
For Canadian investors, the crypto-specific takeaway is this: the Bitcoin ETF structure has fundamentally changed how institutional capital flows in and out of the asset class, reducing the severity of panic-driven liquidations. That is a structural improvement worth acknowledging — even if $71K is still a long way from the prior peak. Treat current levels as a position-sizing opportunity rather than a conviction moment.
Canadian Rents Hit 33-Month Low as Housing Sales Soften — The Spring Market Is the Real Test
Canada’s housing market opened 2026 on ice, and February data confirmed the chill. Nationally, 35,680 homes sold in February 2026 — down 1.4% from January and 7.8% below February 2025 levels, according to CREA data. The national average sale price edged up to $663,828, a 1.7% month-over-month gain but still 0.2% below year-ago levels. On the rental side, the Rentals.ca March Rent Report delivered a striking number: average asking rents fell to $2,030/month in February, a 33-month low and the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Renters are getting relief. Owners are getting a reality check.
Regionally, the picture diverges sharply. Alberta (3.2 months of inventory) and Saskatchewan (4.3 months) remain tight seller’s markets, with Calgary benefiting from interprovincial migration and a resilient energy-sector employment base. Ontario (5.3 months) and British Columbia (7.8 months) are firmly in balanced-to-buyer territory. Toronto and Vancouver — the twin engines of Canada’s decade-long price appreciation — are sitting out this market, with GTA sales running well below historical norms as affordability constraints and trade-policy uncertainty keep first-time buyers on the sidelines.
For REIT investors, the rental market softness is a double-edged sword. Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX:CAR.UN) and Killam Apartment REIT (TSX:KMP.UN) face near-term rent growth headwinds, but both trade at discounts to net asset value and are positioned to benefit if the spring market delivers the expected rebound. Industrial REITs remain the cleaner play in the current environment, given continued e-commerce demand and supply-chain resilience.
Gold’s $854 Tumble, a Bank Rate Hold, and Jamieson Wellness in the Spotlight
Gold’s story this week is counterintuitive — and instructive. Despite an active shooting war in the Middle East and oil prices above $100, the yellow metal has surrendered $854 per ounce since its January high of $5,414, settling at $4,560 on March 25. The culprit is a strengthening US dollar (the traditional inverse driver) combined with rising bond yields that increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Gold and silver technically entered bear market territory in March after falling more than 20% from their peaks. Franco-Nevada (TSX:FNV) added 2.2% during Tuesday’s session but remains well off its January highs, offering a royalty-based entry point for investors who believe the metal’s sell-off is overdone. Nutrien (TSX:NTR) surged 5.7% on the week, driven by elevated potash and nitrogen demand linked to global food-security concerns amid ongoing Middle East disruptions.
Canadian banks navigated a choppy week with measured resilience. Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY) gained 0.6% and TD Bank (TSX:TD) added 0.3% as a late-session rally in financials partially offset pressure from rising bond yields. With financials representing more than 30% of the TSX Composite, any sustained weakness in the Big Six creates index-level drag — but analysts at RBC Wealth Management see 2026 as a year requiring greater selectivity among bank stocks rather than broad-sector exposure. On the healthcare side, Jamieson Wellness (TSX:JWEL) drew a bullish initiation from analysts with a price target of $43.00, while WELL Health Technologies (TSX:WELL) continues to attract attention for its digital health and AI-integration growth story. TransAlta Corp (TSX:TA) received a National Bank upgrade to Outperform during the week.
The investing angle across this sector: Nutrien’s fertilizer tailwind is real and underappreciated; gold’s pullback may represent a long-term entry rather than a structural breakdown (the geopolitical backdrop has not fundamentally improved); and Canadian bank stocks, while steady, require more discernment than a simple sector ETF can offer. Watch Jamieson Wellness for a potential re-rating if Q1 numbers beat consensus.
🍁 Stagflation Creep: How the Iran Crisis Is Quietly Cornering the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18 — the second consecutive hold — and the language in Governor Macklem’s statement was candid about the bind: near-term growth is “weaker than anticipated in January,” unemployment has risen to 6.7%, and employment gains made in Q4 2025 have been largely reversed in the first two months of 2026. CPI eased to 1.8% in February, which would normally give the BoC cover to cut. But oil above $100 changes that calculus entirely. Energy prices are already pushing gasoline costs higher, and the BoC’s own statement acknowledged that “the sharp increase in global energy prices will push up total inflation in the coming months.” The next rate announcement is April 29. Expect another hold.
For Canadian investors, the trade and tariff overhang has not gone away — the CUSMA/USMCA review is approaching, and US tariffs continue to weigh on business confidence and capital spending decisions. The Canadian dollar has stabilized near 0.7246 USD (1.38 USD/CAD), with most bank forecasts projecting a modest CAD recovery toward the mid-1.30 range later in 2026 as the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoC narrows. A stronger loonie would be welcome news for Canadians shopping US goods — but it would also trim the CAD-translated revenues of exporters.
Canada’s positioning in the global energy disruption is genuinely advantageous in the medium term. With Trans Mountain running near full capacity and global buyers actively seeking non-Middle Eastern supply, Canadian heavy crude is finding premium demand it has rarely enjoyed. The federal government’s statement from the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources explicitly signaled Canada’s readiness to serve as a reliable alternative supplier — language that carries real policy weight. GDP growth projections for 2026 remain modest (near 1%), but the energy-driven revenue boost could meaningfully outperform expectations if oil holds above $90.
Bottom line for Canadian investors: the stagflation risk is real but manageable. The strategic play is to own Canada’s comparative advantages — energy producers with strong balance sheets, royalty companies, and pipeline operators — while staying selective in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary. The BoC cannot save you right now. Canadian oil can.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is published by BxB Invests for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always consult a registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
All data as of market close March 25, 2026. Sources cited throughout each story above.
