Oil Spikes, Rates Hold, and Markets Navigate the Fog of War

FROM THE DESK OF BXB INVESTS

Welcome back to The Weekly Edge — your sharp, no-nonsense guide to what’s actually moving markets this week. If last week felt like trying to read a chess board mid-earthquake, you weren’t wrong. Geopolitical fires, a critical inflation print, a Canadian housing market limping under tariff weight, and a crypto market quietly maturing while nobody was watching — it’s been a full week, and we’ve got every thread untangled for you below.

This is investing in 2026: macro volatility meets sectoral opportunity. Canada is navigating its most complex trade environment in decades while simultaneously trying to build a sovereign economic identity beyond its southern neighbour. As the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% and investors wait on the Fed’s next move, here are the five stories you absolutely cannot afford to ignore heading into Q2.

Pour yourself something strong. Let’s get into it.

— The BxB Invests Editorial Team

MACRO SNAPSHOT

The Numbers That Matter This Week

BRENT CRUDE

$97

▼ From $104 intraday high

GOLD SPOT

$3,180

▲ Near all-time highs

BOC POLICY RATE

2.25%

— Held steady

30YR MORTGAGE (US)

6.13%

▼ Slight easing

CANADA GDP GROWTH

0.7%

▼ Weakest in years

TSX BENCHMARK HOME

~$690K

▼ –4.9% yr/yr

The Big Picture: Markets this week were playing tug-of-war between geopolitical oil risk and cautious optimism around cooling inflation. The Fed’s rate path remains murky — February CPI data released today will be pivotal. Canada’s economy, meanwhile, is feeling the full weight of U.S. tariff pressure with GDP growth projected at just 0.7% for 2026, one of the weakest non-recession years in recent memory. The silver lining? Canadian materials and financials remain structural standouts in a global rotation away from mega-cap U.S. tech.

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