TL;DR: The Bank of Canada is parked at 2.75% while its July minutes show a split on the path ahead. Inflation is hovering near 2% but underlying pressures keep policymakers wary. Tech (hello, Shopify) delivered strong numbers, banks remain guarded on credit losses (and TD is still cleaning up U.S. AML fallout), Bitcoin is flirting with fresh highs, and rents fell again nationally—real relief for tenants, pressure for some REITs. Bank of Canada Reuters Statistics Canada
Lead story — BoC holds at 2.75% as minutes reveal a split: what it means for tech, banks & REITs
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75% on July 30. Minutes released today (Aug 13) show policymakers are divided: some see enough support already; others argue for more easing if the economy softens and tariffs bite. Translation for markets: discount rates aren’t falling as fast as bulls hoped, but a cut remains on the table for September if data cooperate. CAD was steady after the minutes. Bank of CanadaReuters+1
Investor takeaway:
- Tech/growth: Higher-for-longer discount rates cap multiples, but beats still rerate winners.
- Banks: Net interest margins stable-ish, but eyes on loan-loss provisions.
- REITs: Cap rates stay sticky; balance-sheet quality matters most.
Tech — Shopify prints a strong Q2: +31% revenue, 16% FCF margin, upbeat Q3 guide
Shopify’s Q2 (to Jun 30) revenue grew 31% YoY to US$2.68B with 16% free cash flow margin and guidance for mid-to-high 20s% revenue growth in Q3. Strong GMV across North America and Europe underpinned the beat. Q4 Inc.
Why it matters: In a market waiting on rate cuts, execution trumps macro—quality Canadian tech can still compound.
Investor takeaway: Keep weighting toward profitable growth with durable unit economics; macro is the headwind, cash generation is the tailwind.
Finance — Big banks tread carefully; TD’s U.S. AML overhang persists; RBC steady
Canada’s banks boosted credit cushions in Q2 amid trade and growth uncertainty. RBC posted higher Q2 net income and a healthy CET1 ratio, while TD remains in remediation after a US$3B U.S. AML settlement and monitorship—an overhang for 2025 strategy. RBCDBRS MorningstarWall Street Journal
Why it matters: With the BoC on hold and growth slowing, loan-loss provisioning—not NIM—is the swing factor for earnings.
Investor takeaway: Favor stronger capital and diversified fee engines; expect tactical volatility into the September BoC and the banks’ next earnings prints.
Crypto — Bitcoin back near records on “cut optimism”
Bitcoin traded around US$120K–123K today as softer U.S. inflation boosted odds of a September Fed cut; crypto historically loves easier money. Canadian investors continue to ride spot ETFs like BTCC as AUM rebounds alongside price. CoinDeskBarron’sInvesting News Network (INN)
Investor takeaway: Momentum is intact but macro-driven; size positions for volatility, and mind CAD/USD when benchmarking returns.
Real estate — Tenants exhale: national asking rents fall for the 10th straight month
Average asking rent in July fell to $2,121 (-3.6% YoY), the 10th consecutive annual decline, with supply finally catching up in several markets. Home sales rose 2.8% MoM in June, led by a GTA bounce—still historically low, but stabilizing. Rentals.caBNN BloombergCREA Statistics
Investor takeaway: For REITs, funding costs stay the swing variable; prioritize low leverage, long-dated debt, and assets with pricing power.
Quick macro dashboard (Canada)
- Policy rate: 2.75% (BoC hold). Bank of Canada
- Inflation: CPI +1.9% YoY (June); July CPI due Aug 19. Statistics CanadaStatistics Canada
- CAD: Stable after BoC minutes. Reuters
Sources
- Bank of Canada: Rate hold (Jul 30) & CPI context. Bank of Canada+1
- BoC minutes coverage (Aug 13): Reuters. Reuters
- CAD reaction (Aug 13): Reuters. Reuters
- Shopify Q2 2025 press release (PDF). Q4 Inc.
- Bitcoin price & market move (Aug 13): CoinDesk, Barron’s. CoinDeskBarron’s
- Rent report: Rentals.ca; BNN Bloomberg recap. Rentals.caBNN Bloomberg
- CREA June sales update. CREA Statistics
- Banks: RBC Q2; DBRS Big Six round-up; TD monitorship context. RBCDBRS MorningstarWall Street Journal
