BxB Invests
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History has a strange sense of timing. On the morning of March 17, 2026 — St. Patrick’s Day, of all days — projectiles struck the crude oil storage terminals at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE, effectively neutralizing the one corridor that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz and keep global oil moving. Gold hit $5,000 per ounce within hours. The TSX, which had been quietly recovering, surged 1.06% as miners and energy names caught a bid. And tomorrow, the Bank of Canada will almost certainly announce a hold at 2.25% — not because everything is fine, but precisely because nothing about this macro environment is simple enough to warrant a decisive move in either direction. Welcome to the fog of 2026.
For Canadian investors this week, the portfolio scorecard reads like a tale of two economies. If you’re overweight energy and gold — Cenovus (TSX: CVE), Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ), Agnico Eagle (TSX: AEM), Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM) — you’ve had a spectacular three weeks. If you’re holding consumer financials, housing-exposed REITs, or levered tech, the experience has been considerably less enjoyable. The Canada Energy Regulator dropped a major 2050 electricity forecast this morning, projecting AI data centres will be one of the primary drivers of Canadian power demand growth — a story that ties energy infrastructure, tech, and the climate transition into one complex, investable mega-theme.
Bitcoin is testing resistance at $75,000, the BoC decision lands at 9:45 AM tomorrow, and Canada’s February housing data from CREA lands today. Five stories, five sectors, and a Canada Corner that may be the most consequential of the year so far — let’s get into it.
— The BxB Invests Editorial Team
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The Numbers That Matter This Week
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Fujairah Falls: The Hormuz Bypass Is Gone — and Oil Markets Are Unravelling
The geopolitical escalation that energy traders feared most materialized in the early hours of March 17. Multiple projectiles struck the crude oil storage terminals and Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) berths at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE — the one major oil export terminal that sits outside the Persian Gulf and had been serving as the primary bypass route for vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began on February 28. The UAE Ministry of Energy confirmed significant damage to at least four VLCC berths. Brent crude immediately spiked above $95 at the open before settling near $93.40 by mid-morning ET. Goldman Sachs, which had already raised its Brent average forecast to $98 per barrel for March and April, warned in a same-day note that a prolonged closure scenario could push prices well beyond $110 by Q2 2026.
The implications for Canadian producers are almost uniformly positive in the near term. Tourmaline Oil (TSX: TOU) gained 1% on Monday even before today’s Fujairah news hit wires, while Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) and Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) were modestly lower last week on IEA reserve release headlines but have now reversed. Cenovus Energy (TSX: CVE) and Whitecap Resources (TSX: WCP), with their low-cost oilsands and Montney production respectively, remain the most levered TSX plays to sustained oil above $90. The Canadian government committed to deliver 23.6 million barrels from the IEA’s emergency reserve release — the largest collective release in history — but analysts note that Canadian crude takes weeks to reach international refiners, limiting the immediate price impact.
The wildcard this week is shipping insurance. Marine insurance premiums for tankers transiting anywhere near the Persian Gulf have reportedly surged to levels that make many voyages economically unviable even if the physical passage is technically possible. Watch for comments from Enbridge (TSX: ENB) executives — any signal that North American pipeline infrastructure is pricing in a longer-duration supply premium would be the clearest confirmation that this is a structural repricing, not a spike. The April BoC decision on April 29 is now a live event; if Brent is still above $90 when February CPI lands March 24, the rate path gets complicated fast.
Canada’s Power Grid Will Be Reshaped by AI — And Investors Are Just Starting to Notice
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released a landmark report on March 17, 2026, projecting significant growth in electrical generation through 2050 — and naming AI data centres as one of the primary drivers of that growth. The timing is pointed: at the same moment Canada’s tech stocks are getting hammered on AI disruption fears, Canada’s energy and utilities complex is beginning to price in the massive electricity demand that AI infrastructure will require for decades to come. The IEA estimates global data centre energy consumption will double between 2022 and 2026. Canada’s data centre market is projected to grow from roughly 750 MW capacity today to approximately 1.16 gigawatts by 2029. Ontario’s grid operator forecasts data centres will constitute 13% of new electricity demand in the province by 2035 — and Alberta currently has over 10 GW of proposed data centre projects in its interconnection queue.
The Alberta Utilities Commission complicated the picture on March 6 when it rejected Synapse Real Estate Corp.’s application to build a 1.4-gigawatt natural gas power plant in Olds, Alberta — intended to power what was billed as Canada’s largest AI data centre campus. The rejection was procedural (the application contained “significant deficiencies” including incomplete environmental assessments and missing figures), but it underscores the regulatory friction that could slow Alberta’s ambition to capture $100 billion in AI data centre investment. For Canadian tech investors, the clean plays here are Shopify (TSX: SHOP), which surged 3.5% this week on broad tech momentum and Piper Sandler’s Overweight initiation with a US$165 target, and Celestica (TSX: CLS), whose data centre server and AI infrastructure manufacturing business is directly in the path of the data centre buildout wave.
The investment theme here extends beyond tech stocks into utilities and pipelines. Capital Power (TSX: CPX) — which signed an agreement with the Carney government in November to suspend clean electricity regulations in Alberta and enable gas-fired power plants for data centres — is the most direct Canadian equity beneficiary of the AI power theme. Boralex (TSX: BLX) and Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE) represent the cleaner-energy angle on the same demand curve. Watch the CER’s upcoming Canada Energy Futures report this spring, which will for the first time model data-centre-specific electricity demand at a national scale — it could be the catalyst that reprices Canadian utilities as AI infrastructure plays.
Bitcoin Flirts With $76K, Then Pulls Back — But the Smart Money Is Quietly Stacking
Bitcoin briefly surged to a six-week high of $75,912 in Asian trading on Tuesday before pulling back below $75,000 — and then retreating further to the $73,700 range by mid-morning ET. According to 10x Research, the rally was driven almost entirely by the unwinding of large bearish put positions tied to $60,000 strike options, with related market-maker delta hedging creating mechanical buying pressure rather than genuine fresh conviction. The CoinDesk 20 Index surged 5% on the initial move, with Ethereum (ETH) leading with a 3.44% gain after reclaiming its 50-day EMA for the first time in 12 sessions. The inability to hold above $74,400 — a former 2025 support level now acting as overhead resistance — is a short-term concern. But the Fear & Greed Index has recovered to 40 (Neutral) from the Extreme Fear reading of 12 recorded just a month ago.
The institutional story is cleaner than the price chart suggests. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, disclosed on March 16 the purchase of 22,337 additional BTC for approximately $1.57 billion — its largest single purchase of 2026. The company now holds 761,068 BTC with a combined market value of roughly $56 billion. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF AUM has climbed to $97.04 billion — up from $93.08 billion just a month ago — signalling that institutional accumulation is continuing even as retail sentiment remains cautious. For Canadian investors, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF (TSX: BTCC) and CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (TSX: BTCX) remain the cleanest regulated-vehicle exposure. Notably, blockchain-based commodity trading on Hyperliquid — a decentralized perpetuals exchange — has seen millions in oil futures traded onchain as traditional markets closed during volatile sessions, highlighting a genuinely new use case for crypto infrastructure.
The key technical levels remain $72,000–$73,000 as the support zone (it has absorbed selling pressure for 18 consecutive sessions) and $76,500 as the breakout level — a clean close above that would target $82,000. On-chain data shows exchange outflows of 2.1 million BTC in Q1 2026, a classic accumulation signal. The Fed’s rate decision Wednesday and the BoC’s Thursday decision will set the short-term tone for risk assets including crypto. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: its bullish breakout this week for the first time since November suggests altcoin season positioning may be quietly beginning.
CREA’s February Data Drops Today — And Canada’s Housing Market Is Holding Its Breath
CREA’s February 2026 housing statistics are released today — the first read on whether the Iran conflict’s inflationary shadow has further chilled Canada’s tentative housing recovery. Last month’s January data painted a sobering picture: national home sales declined 5.8% month-over-month and came in 16.2% below January 2025. The national average sale price dipped 2.6% year-over-year to $652,941, while the MLS HPI benchmark fell 0.9% to $658,300 — down 4.9% year-over-year and 22% below the March 2022 peak of $841,900. The sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 45% (from 51.3% at year-end 2025), the lower boundary of what CREA defines as balanced market conditions. That ratio sits on a knife-edge: one more month of declining sales or rising listings tips Canada into technical buyer’s market territory nationally.
The regional divergence continues to define the story. Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario are the weakest markets — CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart attributes part of January’s weakness to an “historic winter storm,” but structural headwinds (high condo inventory, mortgage renewal pressure) are real. B.C. markets face the additional drag of potential job losses in export sectors; the BC Real Estate Association has modelled 124,000 jobs lost over three years if Trump’s 25% tariffs persist. Calgary, by contrast, remains the most energy-leveraged housing market in Canada — with Alberta’s royalty revenues now surging on $90+ oil, Calgary’s employment and population growth continue to attract interprovincial migrants. CMHC forecasts a 5.1% increase in national home sales in 2026, driven by B.C. and Ontario recovery — that forecast was made before the Iran conflict added inflationary complexity.
For REIT investors navigating the rate uncertainty, differentiation is everything. Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR.UN) remains defensively positioned — rental vacancy is structurally low and CPI-linked rent increases protect income. RioCan REIT (TSX: REI.UN)’s grocery-anchored retail portfolio provides recession-resilient cash flows. Both avoided major REIT distribution cuts during the 2022–2024 rate shock. The sector to avoid: office-heavy and condo-development REITs facing both occupancy pressure and elevated construction financing costs. The next macro trigger for housing: the February CPI print on March 24 — if oil-driven inflation shows up in the data, the BoC’s rate calculus shifts, and the spring market window that buyers were counting on could close before it opened.
Gold Reclaims $5,000 on Fujairah Attack — Miners Surge, Barrick Faces Its Own War
Gold spot traded at $5,033 per ounce as of mid-morning March 17 — reclaiming the psychologically significant $5,000 level after spending the past six weeks consolidating between $4,996 and $5,053. The Fujairah attack was the immediate spark, but as FinancialContent’s morning analysis noted, “the underlying dry tinder of de-dollarization and supply shortages has been present for years.” Gold’s 2026 story now has a remarkable trajectory: from roughly $2,624 per ounce a year ago, it set an all-time high of $5,589 on January 29, and is now staging a recovery from its post-ATH consolidation. Silver is trading at $81.81 per ounce, with the gold-to-silver ratio tightening to 61.5 — silver’s industrial demand from AI data centre and solar panel manufacturing is providing a structural demand floor that previous cycles lacked.
On the TSX, the gold complex is broadly positive this week: Agnico Eagle (TSX: AEM), Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM), and Franco-Nevada (TSX: FNV) each gained close to 2% on Tuesday as gold benchmarks rose ahead of tomorrow’s expected Fed hold. The one notable exception is Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX), which is managing a separate corporate crisis: Newmont issued a “Notice of Default” to Barrick regarding the management of their Nevada Gold Mines joint venture this month, introducing legal uncertainty precisely when the company should be capitalizing on $5,000 gold. Barrick’s All-In Sustaining Costs have climbed toward $1,950 per ounce — narrower margins than peers even at these prices. Agnico Eagle and Wheaton remain the higher-quality Canadian gold plays, with Wheaton’s streaming model providing particular upside leverage through royalties on copper, silver, and palladium in addition to gold.
The macro setup for gold remains uniquely constructive: central bank demand is running at roughly 585 tonnes per quarter (J.P. Morgan estimate); de-dollarization among Global South sovereigns is structural; U.S. fiscal deficits continue to expand regardless of administration. J.P. Morgan’s updated forecast sees gold averaging $5,055/oz in Q4 2026, with Societe Generale targeting $6,000 by year-end. LiteFinance’s technical analysis shows a Bullish Engulfing pattern at the $4,996 support, with the next target zone at $5,053 — a break above which opens the door to retest the January ATH at $5,589. For Canadian investors, WPM and FNV (the streaming royalty names) offer gold upside with materially lower operational risk than pure-play miners like ABX or even AEM.
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🍁 BoC Holds Tomorrow, Carney Chases a Hormuz Exit, and the Loonie Finds Its Floor
The Bank of Canada rate decision on March 18 at 9:45 AM ET is the most anticipated Canadian macro event in months — and Bloomberg’s survey of economists is unanimous: Governor Tiff Macklem will hold at 2.25% for a third consecutive meeting. The reasoning is almost comically complicated for a central bank that prefers simple narratives: oil-driven inflation is rising, but the domestic economy remains fragile; tariffs are squeezing exporters, but services inflation is sticky; the labour market added jobs for three consecutive months, but hiring intentions in trade-sensitive sectors are muted. “The Bank of Canada is likely to hold interest rates steady as policymakers weigh the inflation risk of higher oil prices against a string of weak economic numbers,” Bloomberg wrote this morning. The market has priced out any near-term cuts and is now debating whether the next move is a hike — 40 basis points of hikes are priced into 2026 financial markets, though Capital Economics calls that “unlikely.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, meanwhile, is on a multi-leg trip through the Asia-Pacific region — Japan, India, and Australia — as Canada seeks to diversify trade relationships beyond the U.S. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told media that Canada’s focus in the Iran conflict is on “unblocking the Strait of Hormuz,” a diplomatically delicate position given Canada’s energy export interests and its NATO obligations. Carney’s diplomatic offensive is arguably the most consequential Canadian foreign policy moment since NAFTA renegotiation — the CUSMA review is due for completion by July 2026, and the outcome of those talks will do more to shape Canada’s 2027 economic trajectory than any BoC decision this year.
The Canadian dollar is holding near 0.7180 USD/CAD — slightly stronger than last week’s 0.7170, reflecting the TSX’s relative outperformance and oil’s positive effect on Canada’s terms of trade. Morningstar Canada notes that “economic recovery and a growing differential in monetary policy versus the US underpin the positive outlook for the loonie in 2026” — a forecast that, if the BoC is forced to hold while the Fed begins easing, could see CAD strengthen toward the 0.74–0.76 range by H2 2026. That CAD strength scenario is a double-edged sword: it’s good for Canadian purchasing power and import-driven inflation, but it compresses the competitiveness of Canadian exporters already squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The actionable BxB Canadian investor playbook for this week: Hold or add to energy (CVE, CNQ, TOU) and precious metals streamers (WPM, FNV) on any dip — the macro tailwinds are structural, not cyclical. Stay selective in tech: Shopify’s 3.5% move and the Piper Sandler Overweight initiation are encouraging, but sector-level AI disruption fear needs a full earnings season to clear. On housing: don’t fight the macro — the CREA February data out today and the March 24 CPI print are the two data releases that will determine whether the spring market opens or freezes. The most overlooked opportunity right now? The Canadian utilities complex (CPX, BLX, INE) is beginning to price in the AI electricity demand surge — and most retail investors haven’t noticed yet.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is published by BxB Invests for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however BxB Invests makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Stock prices and market data mentioned reflect available information as of market hours March 17, 2026 and may have changed. Always consult a registered financial advisor before making investment decisions. TSX-listed stocks mentioned include CVE, CNQ, TOU, IMO, WCP, ENB, SHOP, CLS, CPX, BLX, INE, BTCC, BTCX, CAR.UN, REI.UN, AEM, ABX, WPM, FNV. All figures in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated.
All data as of market hours March 17, 2026. Sources cited throughout each story above. © 2026 BxB Invests. All rights reserved.
